Deprivation and volunteering by general practices: cross sectional analysis of a national primary care system

No abstract available

Secondhand smoke exposure and risk of incident peripheral arterial disease and mortality: a Scotland-wide retrospective cohort study of 4045 non-smokers with cotinine measurement

Background: Active smoking is an important risk factor for all-cause mortality and peripheral arterial disease (PAD). In contrast, published studies on the associations with secondhand smoke (SHS) are limited. The aim of this study was to examine the associations between SHS exposure and incident PAD, as well as mortality, among middle-aged non-smokers. Methods: We undertook a retrospective, cohort study using record linkage of the Scottish Health Surveys between 1998 and 2010 to hospital admissions and death certificates. Inclusion was restricted to participants aged > 45 years. Cox proportional hazard models were used to examine the association between SHS exposure and incident PAD (hospital admission or death) and all-cause mortality, with adjustment for potential confounders. Results: Of the 4045 confirmed non-smokers (self-reported non-smokers with salivary cotinine concentrations < 15 ng/mL), 1163 (28.8%) had either moderate or high exposure to SHS at baseline. In men, high exposure to SHS (cotinine ≥2.7 ng/mL) was associated with increased risk of all-cause mortality (fully adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 1.54, 95% CI 1.07–2.22, p = 0.020) with evidence of a dose-relationship (p for trend = 0.004). In men, high exposure to SHS was associated with increased risk of incident PAD over the first five years of follow-up (fully adjusted HR 4.29, 95% CI 1.14–16.10, p = 0.031) but the association became non-significant over longer term follow-up. Conclusions: SHS exposure was independently associated with all-cause mortality and may be associated with PAD, but larger studies, or meta-analyses, are required to confirm the latter

Non-fatal self-harm in Scottish military veterans: a retrospective cohort study of 57,000 veterans and 173,000 matched non-veterans

Purpose: Although suicide risk in veterans has been widely studied, there is little information on the risk of non-fatal self-harm in this population. We used data from the Scottish Veterans Health Study to conduct an epidemiological analysis of self-harm in veterans, in comparison with people who have never served. Methods: We conducted a retrospective, 30-year cohort study of 56,205 veterans born 1945–1985, and 172,741 people with no record of military service, and used Cox proportional hazard models to examine the association between veteran status and cumulative risk of non-fatal self-harm, overall and stratified by birth cohort, sex and length of service. We also examined mental and physical comorbidities, and association of suicide with prior self-harm. Results: There were 1620 (2.90%) first episodes of self-harm in veterans, compared with 4212 (2.45%) in non-veterans. The difference was statistically significant overall (unadjusted HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.21–1.35, p < 0.001). The risk was highest in the oldest veterans, and in the early service leavers who failed to complete initial training (unadjusted HR 1.69, 95% CI 1.50–1.91, p < 0.001). The risk reduced with longer service and in the intermediate birth cohorts but has increased again in the youngest cohort. Conclusions: The highest risk of non-fatal self-harm was in veterans with the shortest service, especially those who did not complete training or minimum engagement, and in the oldest birth cohorts, whilst those who had served the longest were at reduced risk. The risk has increased again in the youngest veterans, and further study of this subgroup is indicated

Association between self-reported general and mental health and adverse outcomes: a retrospective cohort study of 19 625 Scottish adults

<b>Objective</b><p></p> Self-reported general health and mental health are independent predictors of all-cause mortality. This study examines whether they are also independent predictors of incident cancer, coronary heart disease and psychiatric hospitalisation. <b>Methods</b><p></p> We conducted a retrospective, population cohort study by linking the 19 625 Scottish adults who participated in the Scottish Health Surveys 1995–2003, to hospital admissions, cancer registration and death certificate records. We conducted Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for potential confounders including age, sex, socioeconomic status, alcohol, smoking status, body mass index, hypertension and diabetes. <b>Results</b><p></p> Poor general health was reported by 1215 (6.2%) participants and was associated with cancer registrations (adjusted Hazard Ratio [HR] 1.30, 95% CI 1.10, 1.55), coronary heart disease events (adjusted HR 2.30, 95% CI 1.86, 2.84) and psychiatric hospitalisations (adjusted HR 2.42, 95% CI 1.65, 3.56). There was evidence of dose relationships and the associations remained significant after adjustment for mental health. 3172 (16%) participants had poor mental health (GHQ ≥4). After adjustment for general health, the associations between poor mental health and coronary heart disease events (adjusted HR 1.36, 95% CI 1.13, 1.63) and all-cause death (adjusted HR 1.38, 95% CI 1.23, 1.55) became non-significant, but mental health remained associated with psychiatric hospitalisations (fully adjusted HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.48, 2.75). <b>Conclusion</b><p></p> Self-reported general health is a significant predictor of a range of clinical outcomes independent of mental health. The association between mental health and non-psychiatric outcomes is mediated by general health but it is an independent predictor of psychiatric outcome. Individuals with poor general health or mental health warrant close attention

Lymphohaematopoietic malignancies in Scottish military veterans: Retrospective cohort study of 57,000 veterans and 173,000 non-veterans

Background: Lymphohaematopoietic malignancies are common in the general population. There have been concerns that military service may be associated with increased risk as a result of occupational exposures. To date, few studies have demonstrated an increased risk, although a disability pension is payable to veterans who were present at nuclear tests and who develop leukaemia (other than chronic lymphocytic leukaemia). The aim of the study was to utilise data from the Scottish Veterans Health Study to examine the risk of lymphohaematopoietic malignancy following military service in a large national cohort of veterans. Methods: Retrospective cohort study of 57,000 veterans and 173,000 non-veterans born between 1945 and 1985 matched for age, sex and area of residence, adjusted for areal deprivation and followed up for up to 30 years, using Cox proportional hazard models to compare the risk of lymphohaematopoietic malignancy overall, by diagnosis and by sex and birth cohort. Results: We found no statistically significant difference in risk between veterans and non-veterans either for all leukaemias (Cox proportional hazard ratio 1.03, 95% confidence intervals 0.84–1.27, p = 0.773), Hodgkin lymphoma (hazard ratio 1.19, 95% confidence intervals 0.87–1.61, p = 0.272) or for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (hazard ratio 0.86, 95% confidence intervals 0.71–1.04, p = 0.110). Conclusion: Our findings provide reassurance that service in the UK Armed Forces is not associated with increased risk of lymphohaematopoietic malignancy

Ethnic specific obesity cut-offs for diabetes risk: cross-sectional study of 490, 288 UK Biobank participants

OBJECTIVE To compare the relationship between adiposity and prevalent diabetes across ethnic groups in the UK Biobank cohort and to derive ethnic-specific obesity cutoffs that equate to those developed in white populations in terms of diabetes prevalence.<p></p> RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS UK Biobank recruited 502,682 U.K. residents aged 40–69 years. We used baseline data on the 490,288 participants from the four largest ethnic subgroups: 471,174 (96.1%) white, 9,631 (2.0%) South Asian, 7,949 (1.6%) black, and 1,534 (0.3%) Chinese. Regression models were developed for the association between anthropometric measures (BMI, waist circumference, percentage body fat, and waist-to-hip ratio) and prevalent diabetes, stratified by sex and adjusted for age, physical activity, socioeconomic status, and heart disease.<p></p> RESULTS Nonwhite participants were two- to fourfold more likely to have diabetes. For the equivalent prevalence of diabetes at 30 kg/m2 in white participants, BMI equated to the following: South Asians, 22.0 kg/m2; black, 26.0 kg/m2; Chinese women, 24.0 kg/m2; and Chinese men, 26.0 kg/m2. Among women, a waist circumference of 88 cm in the white subgroup equated to the following: South Asians, 70 cm; black, 79 cm; and Chinese, 74 cm. Among men, a waist circumference of 102 cm equated to 79, 88, and 88 cm for South Asian, black, and Chinese participants, respectively.<p></p> CONCLUSIONS Obesity should be defined at lower thresholds in nonwhite populations to ensure that interventions are targeted equitably based on equivalent diabetes prevalence. Furthermore, within the Asian population, a substantially lower obesity threshold should be applied to South Asian compared with Chinese groups.<p></p&gt

Childhood IQ and risk of bipolar disorder in adulthood: prospective birth cohort study

Background: Intellectual ability may be an endophenotypic marker for bipolar disorder. Aims: Within a large birth cohort, we aimed to assess whether childhood IQ (including both verbal IQ (VIQ) and performance IQ (PIQ) subscales) was predictive of lifetime features of bipolar disorder assessed in young adulthood. Method: We used data from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC), a large UK birth cohort, to test for an association between measures of childhood IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features assessed at age 22–23 years using the Hypomania Checklist-32 (HCL-32; n=1881 individuals). An ordinary least squares linear regression model was used, with normal childhood IQ (range 90–109) as the referent group. We adjusted analyses for confounding factors, including gender, ethnicity, handedness, maternal social class at recruitment, maternal age, maternal history of depression and maternal education. Results: There was a positive association between IQ at age 8 years and lifetime manic features at age 22–23 years (Pearson's correlation coefficient 0.159 (95% CI 0.120–0.198), P>0.001). Individuals in the lowest decile of manic features had a mean full-scale IQ (FSIQ) which was almost 10 points lower than those in the highest decile of manic features: mean FSIQ 100.71 (95% CI 98.74–102.6) v. 110.14 (95% CI 107.79–112.50), P>0.001. The association between IQ and manic features was present for FSIQ, VIQ and for PIQ but was strongest for VIQ. Conclusions: A higher childhood IQ score, and high VIQ in particular, may represent a marker of risk for the later development of bipolar disorder. This finding has implications for understanding of how liability to bipolar disorder may have been selected through generations. It will also inform future genetic studies at the interface of intelligence, creativity and bipolar disorder and is relevant to the developmental trajectory of bipolar disorder. It may also improve approaches to earlier detection and treatment of bipolar disorder in adolescents and young adults

Estimating the impact of investment tax credits on aircraft demand

This paper uses exogenous price changes from the shifting tax policies of the 1980’s to identify the parameters of a nested-logit discrete choice model of the aircraft market. The federal Investment Tax Credit (ITC) was a tax credit of 6-10% of a firm's new capital investment that was removed by the Tax Reform Act of 1986 (TRA86). Such tax credits continue to be proposed as tools to spur investment, and they are still utlized in many states and select industries. This research adds to the small body of empirical work on taxes in imperfectly competitive markets. I model the oligopoly market structure of aircraft manufacturers by assuming Bertrand competition. The demand-side parameters are estimated using 2SLS with cost-shifting instruments. The demand-side choices are purchasing new or used aircraft, or refraining from purchasing an aircraft. I then estimate linear mark-up equations using the demand-side parameter estimates and other cost variables. I use the full set of parameter estimates to simulate aircraft transactions before and after the TRA86. This structural approach allows me to isolate the effects of the ITC through counterfactual policy simulations. I find that the ITC encourages firms to upgrade to more expensive capital by purchasing a more expensive aircraft than they would have without the ITC; however, the ITC has very limited impact enticing firms to purchase new aircraft instead of used aircraft. The overall effect on new purchases is small. Thus, most of the incidence of the tax credit was gained by the suppliers of aircraft; moreover the ITC exacerbated the market power of suppliers, leading to further distortions.Business Subsidy: TRA86: Differentiated Products: Aircraft

Radial versus femoral access for rotational atherectomy: A UK observational study of 8622 patients

Background—Rotational atherectomy (RA) is an important interventional tool for heavily calcified coronary lesions. We compared the early clinical outcomes in patients undergoing RA using radial or femoral access. Methods and Results—We identified all patients in England and Wales who underwent RA between January 1, 2005, and March 31, 2014. Eight thousand six hundred twenty-two RA cases (3069 radial and 5553 femoral) were included in the analysis. The study primary outcome was 30-day mortality. Propensity scores were calculated to determine the factors associated with treatment assignment to radial or femoral access. Multivariable logistic regression analysis, using the calculated propensity scores, was performed. Thirty-day mortality was 2.2% in the radial and 2.3% in the femoral group (P=0.76). Radial access was associated with equivalent 30-day mortality (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 1.06; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.77–1.46; P=0.71), procedural success (OR, 1.04; 95% CI, 0.84–1.29; P=0.73), major adverse cardiac and cerebrovascular events (OR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.80–1.38; P=0.72), and net adverse clinical events (OR, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.71–1.15; P=0.41), but lower rates of in-hospital major bleeding (OR, 0.62; 95% CI, 0.40–0.98; P=0.04) and major access site complications (OR, 0.05; 95% CI, 0.01–0.38; P=0.004), compared with femoral access. Conclusions—In this large real-world study of patients undergoing RA, radial access was associated with equivalent 30-day mortality and procedural success, but reduced major bleeding and access site complications, compared with femoral access

Cost-effectiveness analysis in R using a multi-state modelling survival analysis framework: a tutorial

This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modelling approach. Alongside the tutorial we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue this multi-state modelling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach if the Markov property does not hold. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model a covariate that represents patients’ history is included allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create two common methods of visualising the results, namely cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate, to accommodate parametric multi-state modelling which facilitates extrapolation of survival curves